Upvote:2
Odds are pretty bad since your ticket is just about the lowest in the pecking order and it's a really busy travel weekend.
You can monitor prices for the flights: if they go up, seats are filling quickly. If they stay or go down, there is plenty open.
Current low bidder for 7/4 is Alaska at $160 non stop. 7/3 seems fuller: American offers a one stop for $170 and the cheapest non-stop is $250.
I'd recommend taking the 7/4 $160 option right now. It's a guaranteed non-stop as compared to a nail biter.