score:6
It's most likely illness. Takeda Shingen's death has been reported as pulmonary tuberculosis in the Buke Jiki, 武家事紀
, and as throat or stomach cancer in the Kōyō Gunkan 甲陽軍鑑
. There's a theory that he was killed by a bullet or bullet wound, but this is generally regarded as a popular myth. It is only found in pro-Tokugawa writings (i.e. propaganda) produced during the Edo period, where the ruling Tokugawa clan would have liked to be credited with indirectly killing the great Shingen.
Shingen did actually leave orders to keep his death secret for three years. I don't think they fooled anyone, though.