How do Christians who believe in libertarian free will explain the large imbalance in the ratio of people saved vs. condemned?

There is a proverb about not killing the messenger, the reason behind it being that uttering a statement about something, and being either involved in or desirous of said outcome, are completely different things; as such, since most Christians who don't believe in libertarian free will seem to (also) espouse a (somewhat disturbing) tendency of deeming God (a non-human) ultimately responsible for the deeds of humans, those that question such (unwarranted) conclusions incline towards the opposite.

Also, character and temporality are distinct notions; thus the moral character of the eternal Logos did not change its (good) nature upon entering our temporal world; likewise, the wicked will not suddenly have a change of heart upon entering God's timelessness after leaving the temporal realm.

Your question seems to presume that free-will would result in a 50-50 outcome, or something like that. Or perhaps 99-1 where the overwhelming majority select life.

Part of the answer lies in the "mystery of lawlessness" spoken of by Paul in 2Th2:7 and the blindness caused by the devil: "in whose case the god of this world has blinded the minds of the unbelieving so that they might not see the light of the gospel of the glory of Christ, who is the image of God." (2Co 4:4 NASB95)

I don't think the problem you are wrestling with needs to be completely answered. Some things are above our rank, as Jesus made clear. However, if you do believe in free-will (as I do), then you will also take it upon yourself to try to convince as many as possible of the truth of Jesus Christ, that all that can be saved (so far as it depends upon you), make it to the heavenly kingdom.

Also, I think you are underestimating the number of people who will be saved: "After these things I looked, and behold, a great multitude which no one could count, from every nation and [all] tribes and peoples and tongues, standing before the throne and before the Lamb, clothed in white robes, and palm branches [were] in their hands;" (Rev 7:9 NASB95)

Read this article for perspective, titled "Average person makes 773,618 decisions in a lifetime":

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/average-person-makes-773618-decisions-90742

If a person was so close to perfect that their odds of making a damnable mistake was one in a million per decision, this is the chance that they would lead a life in which they made no mistake so bad that they disqualified themself from entering heaven:

0.999999 ^ 773618 = 0.46134073532 => 46.1%

In a world of seven billion people, there are 7,000 one-in-a-million people, the most righteous among us. Statistically, if you took those 7,000 people aside, only 46% of that group would maake it from birth to death without making at least one really bad, damnably immoral decision, or 3,229 people. Some lesser people might make the cut by luck, but as you go lower on the perfection scale, the odds get bad pretty fast. I will spare you the integral calculus. I doubt the tally would exceed 10,000 people.

And real righteous people make more mistakes than one in a million.

There is the crux of the problem. We do not make a single decision in life, we make lots of decisions. The illusion of a fifty-fifty chance is just that, an illusion.

In statistical mechanics, you never care about which way individual atoms travel. You study averages. I believe that God does see the future, but even if he doesn't, with enough people, you can make remarkable predictions about averages. It is possible to make the claim that few are saved with much less than an omniscient mind, even in the presence of libertarian free will.

This answer was originally written as a response to this question, but it was closed before I could post. Because the two questions are closely related, I've retained the original answer, and I've added a P.S. to tie it in to the specifics of the OP.

(the original question was Do we really have free will if we are born with a sinful nature?)

The Book of Mormon offers an explicit answer to this question (this post will present a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints perspective).

The discussion is found in 2 Nephi chapter 2; I'll quote a few of the most relevant verses here:

16 Wherefore, the Lord God gave unto man that he should act for himself. Wherefore, man could not act for himself save it should be that he was enticed by the one or the other.

...

21 And the days of the children of men were prolonged, according to the will of God, that they might repent while in the flesh; wherefore, their state became a state of probation...

22 And now, behold, if Adam had not transgressed he would not have fallen, but he would have remained in the garden of Eden. And all things which were created must have remained in the same state in which they were after they were created; and they must have remained forever, and had no end.

23 And they would have had no children; wherefore they would have remained in a state of innocence, having no joy, for they knew no misery; doing no good, for they knew no sin.

24 But behold, all things have been done in the wisdom of him who knoweth all things.

25 Adam fell that men might be; and men are, that they might have joy.

26 And the Messiah cometh in the fulness of time, that he may redeem the children of men from the fall. And because that they are redeemed from the fall they have become free forever, knowing good from evil; to act for themselves and not to be acted upon, save it be by the punishment of the law at the great and last day, according to the commandments which God hath given.

27 Wherefore, men are free according to the flesh; and all things are given them which are expedient unto man. And they are free to choose liberty and eternal life, through the great Mediator of all men, or to choose captivity and death, according to the captivity and power of the devil; for he seeketh that all men might be miserable like unto himself.

A few key points:

• The existence of opposition is part of the plan
• Departure from Eden was necessary for the progression of mankind
• That we have moral agency is expressly taught (we are free to choose)
• God created a program in which we could experience a time of probation & make mistakes, and that we could learn from those mistakes without being condemned by them--because a Redeemer was sent who would redeem us from the Fall and could redeem us from our own choices as well.

So yes, we can have both free will & a fallen nature--in fact that was part of the plan.

Another way to look at it--if there were no opposition--if we were never faced with multiple options that produced divergent results--could we really claim to have free will at all?

P.S. as promised

If the choices of free agents were comparable to rolls of dice or flips of a coin, we might expect a more even distribution--but the claim of believers in free will is that human decisions are not comparable to rolling dice or flipping coins. They are not backwards and forwards calculable (like the movements of the planets, for example).

That they may sometimes be predicted it is true, but prediction is no more causation here than it would be if I were to predict tomorrow's sunrise. I can predict something without causing it. The Lord, who knows the end from the beginning (see Isaiah 46:10), can go even further. I suggest that He doesn't need to consult a spreadsheet before predicting tomorrow's sunrise or the choices His children will make--He sees the whole picture. He's not making predictions based on probability distributions.

We predict the future inductively by assuming the future will be like the past. God declares what will happen in the future because all things are present before Him.

If the path to eternal life were easy, I would expect a distribution overwhelmingly skewed in favor of "that path that leads to life". If the path to eternal life is hard (I believe it is), I would expect a distribution skewed in favor of the path that is broad and easy. Thus, another way to read Jesus' statement is that the path is hard.

(I should point out here that I do not hold a particularly orthodox view on heaven and hell--for more see here & here. I don't believe God will send the majority of His children to spend eternity in unquenchable fire.)

How could I possibly read the Sermon on the Mount and not conclude the path is hard? I conclude that Jesus asks a lot; I also conclude that what He asks is worth it.

Universal problem: “I can get no satisfaction”

Right solution:

“Let us come boldly to the throne of grace, where the needy can obtain help” (Heb 4:16)

In the story about the King making wedding celebrations for his son, the first wedding guests, through exercise of their free will, didn’t want to come to the wedding, because they were busy with other “more important” things. The host therefore send out his servants to invite strangers from the street, including crippled and blind. These had a “serious” lack in their lives and were hungry for something better, so they of their own volition came. (Mat 22:2-14; Luk 14:15-23). When the restricted space of the ceremonial premises were filled, the doors were shut close, and no more people were let in. (Mat 25:10-12).

Thus, the imbalance between saved and condemned has to be due to that heaven, like Noah’s ark, is a limited place; and that the in the Bible stated number of inhabitants happen to be the most perfect and suitable number for such a limited place. By free will wanting to be there is obviously important, but having chaste behavior, a good record of unselfish righteous acts, together with being there in time before the quota is filled has to be as, if not more, important.

“The virgins who were ready went in with him to the wedding banquet. And the door was shut. “Later the others also came. ‘Lord, Lord,’ they said, ‘open the door for us!’. “But he replied, ‘Truly I tell you, I don’t know you.’ (Mat 25:10-12)

God exists outside of time.

First, you have to remember that God exists outside of linear time.

But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day.

2 Peter 3:8

While there's no biblical basis beyond this, I believe that both predestination and free will exist simultaneously because of quantum mechanics. Time isn't a straight line between past and future, but a tree that forks every time someone makes a decision - and since He is outside of time, God can see the entire tree. So, by making our decisions, we have free will - we can choose which branch of the tree our world goes down. However, God can see the sum total of all of the branches of the tree from the very beginning until the end of time, and He can tell how many people will be saved and how many won't be across all of them.

Is it possible in the time dependent realm to have (statistical) and absolute statements from God about the “future” which are not conflicting with libertarian free will? Please consider the following.

In classical mechanics, a simple example is saying that if you role two normal 6 sided dice, there is relatively a small probability that the numbers add up to a number larger than 10. But here one could argue over aleatoric vs. epistemic uncertainty of the dice. And in a universe of only classical mechanics it would be at least in principle possible to predict all dice roll outcomes. Under the assumptions of such a universe it would be in principle possible to predict any actions. Therefore the concept of libertarian free will, is defined in such a way that the decisions of agents with free will can not be calculated with such certainty.

For non-classical mechanics and quantum mechanics, similar but different statistical statements are possible. If we have a rod of radio-active material, we can "predict" that there is an X-probability that P-percent of all atoms in the rod will show radio-active decay during a given time period. But we cannot calculate which atoms will decay, and in principle it is not impossible (although it might be very improbable) that none of the atoms will decay. So statistical statements and predictions are not in conflict with quantum mechanical phenomena or the concept of libertarian free will. But how about absolute statements?

The other answer that quotes 2 Peter 3:8, highlights an other interesting aspect that God is beyond or outside of time. Although this is maybe difficult to imagine, one could illustrate it with watching a video recording of a sports game of which you already know the result. The players of the sports game, have and had their free will, and completed a time dependent transient process. But a time independent observer (God) can see any part of the video and knows the result. So far so good, the players were not fundamentaly hindered in their free will by a mere recording. (Note however that knowledge of being recorded could have influenced their actions, but not the principle of free will itself).

The difficulties seem to arise, however, if the observer would communicate information with the players before the start of the game and would tell/prophecy them the final score of the game before the start of the game. Such there is some information feedback loop from the "future" or from "outside" of the system. Note that the outside observer (God) is not actually calculating, or predicting, he tells them what he already knows. But then, is there then still free will for the players or agents? or is there predestination?

• One modification related to the examples above, to avoid contradictions is that the communication or information regarding the final result from the outside observer is stated as a statistical statement or subject to some probability (like with the radio active decay). But this is not very satisfying because it seems to imply that the observer God is not certain, because he only communicates a statistical statement that is still subject to some uncertainty.
• Another perspective to possible contradictions of free will with telling the game participants the final result before the game is, to consider/assume that all participants have libertarian free will so they are free to choose to believe the message and messenger or not.

So ironically enough because of a the libertarian free will of all the participants, statements from the "future" or the realm above or outside of time, are not in contradiction with a free will, or a restriction with free will, because all participants still have the freedom to believe and act how they desire. This does however not imply that the behavior of the agents is not influenced by such statements. The influence of such statements is however dependent on how the agents use their libertarian free will and choose to believe the messenger, and how they will consider the message in their actions.

So even information from “the future” or from beyond time does not necessarily contradict libertarian free-will, but from a time dependent perspective it seems that it has a potential to influence the actions resulting from free will. So the essential point is that information from the future can influence free will, but that does not contradict the existence of free will. Some body can tell you: "Tomorrow it will rain" it will maybe influence your actions but, it does not take away your free will (regardless if that person was God, or just your neighbor). Some bible scriptures that are relevant to the topic of free will and predestination are for example:

Galations 6:7 Do not be deceived: God is not mocked, for whatever one sows, that will he also reap.

This is pretty clear about the role of cause and effect.

Isaiah 46: 9,10: Remember the former things of old: for I am God, and there is none else; I am God, and there is none like me, 10 Declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times the things that are not yet done, saying, My counsel shall stand, and I will do all my pleasure:

This seems to indicate that God is not calculating or predicting, he makes/declares statements about what for us is perceived as "the future".

These idea's are quite general, but can also be applied to the particular case of the skewed distribution/imbalance in the statements of Jesus that only few will find the way that leads to life.

A few thoughts:

1. The passages you cited do not necessarily imply that few people will be saved - even authors at reformed sites like The Gospel Coalition acknowledge this point. Some passages imply many will be saved, others few - the point of those passages is likely not statistical but rather to exhort the hearers to action.
2. Only God, who knows the heart of every person, knows the percentages on who will be saved - we must let God make the final decisions (1 Cor 4:3-5)
3. As others have noted, free will does not imply a stochastic process where, all else being equal, there would be a 50/50 split as in a coin toss.

I think the most compelling evidence from Scripture that might explain a tendency for people to reject God is the fact that we must choose between the world (lust, greed, pride, self) and God. We cannot love both - it is impossible to have two masters. And if you read Scripture as narrative even the Israelites tended to choose the surrounding world system with its idols and false gods rather than the true and living God, yet in that same narrative, God always speaks as if the Israelites have free will to choose. So the narrative itself suggests a situation where free will exists yet many do not choose God.

The saints are those who set aside the love of this world for the love of God and neighbor. As Jesus says often, this requires taking up one's cross and is no easy path. Some quotes/Scripture verses below.

You cannot take all luggage with you on all journeys; on one journey even your right hand and your right eye may be among the things you have to leave behind. We are not living in a world where all roads are radii of a circle and where all, if followed long enough, will therefore draw gradually nearer and finally meet at the centre: rather in a world where every road, after a few miles, forks into two, and each of those into two again, and at each fork you must make a decision. …I do not think that all who choose wrong roads perish; but their rescue consists in being put back on the right road.–C. S. Lewis, The Great Divorce

Romans 1:20-23

²⁰For since the creation of the world God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that people are without excuse. ²¹ For although they knew God, they neither glorified him as God nor gave thanks to him, but their thinking became futile and their foolish hearts were darkened. ²² Although they claimed to be wise, they became fools ²³ and exchanged the glory of the immortal God for images made to look like a mortal human being and birds and animals and reptiles. (NIV)

1 John 2:15-17

¹⁵Do not love the world or anything in the world. If anyone loves the world, love for the Father is not in them. ¹⁶ For everything in the world—the lust of the flesh, the lust of the eyes, and the pride of life—comes not from the Father but from the world. ¹⁷ The world and its desires pass away, but whoever does the will of God lives forever. (NIV)

Hebrews 11:13-16

¹³All these people were still living by faith when they died. They did not receive the things promised; they only saw them and welcomed them from a distance, admitting that they were foreigners and strangers on earth. ¹⁴ People who say such things show that they are looking for a country of their own. ¹⁵ If they had been thinking of the country they had left, they would have had opportunity to return. ¹⁶ Instead, they were longing for a better country—a heavenly one. Therefore God is not ashamed to be called their God, for he has prepared a city for them. (NIV)