Is the arising of Buddhas a cosmological evolutionary occurrence?

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...cosmological evolutionary occurrence?

By 'evolutionary' if you mean a random event as like a 'random mutation in biological evolution', then NO. It's definitely a cosmological event as in, the attainment of Nirvana by a would be Buddha is a Cosmological Phenomena it's not a trivial case of altered consciousness of a Human.

...if not, then who or what is governing these occurrences?

There is No-Self and definitely no higher being controlling anything according to Buddhist Cosmology and Philosophy in general.

The Occurrence of a Buddha

It has vastly to do with two things;

  1. The Karma of the would be Buddha, we are all potential would be Buddhas, our individual Karma will determine who would end up being one. With each act of Kindness and each Unwholesome deed, we birth our future.

  2. The conditions for the arrival of the Buddha should be adequate, for e.g. The Buddha would not have born in say for an e.g. ancient Egypt because people were not into meditation nor would He have found bhikkus to memorise his suttas and pass on, He would not have born in British India or the Islamic India, He will not be born in Antartic or Arctic, etc you get my point. For a Buddha to carry out His operation of teaching the Dhamma to the fellow Humans, the conditions of His arrivals have to meet a certain environment, a milieu.

Finally, ponder upon this simile,

The Buddha used a sea turtle to illustrate the precious rarity of opportunity afforded by our human birth. The turtle example appears in the scripture called in Pali, the Chiggala Sutta that is classified as LVI.48 of the Samyutta Nikaya.

"Monks, suppose that this great earth were totally covered with water, and a man were to toss a yoke with a single hole there.

A wind from the east would push it west, a wind from the west would push it east. A wind from the north would push it south, a wind from the south would push it north.

And suppose a blind turtle were there. It would come to the surface once every one hundred years.

Now what do you think - Would that blind turtle, coming to the surface once every one hundred years, stick his neck into the yoke with a single hole?"

"It would be a sheer coincidence, Lord, that the blind turtle, coming to the surface once every one hundred years, would stick his neck into the yoke with a single hole."

"It's likewise a sheer coincidence that one obtains the human state.

It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a Tathagata, worthy and rightly self-awakened, arises in the world.

It's likewise a sheer coincidence that doctrine and discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world.

Now, this human state has been obtained. A Tathagata, worthy and rightly self-awakened, has arisen in the world. A doctrine and discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world.

"Therefore your duty is the contemplation: `This is stress . . . . This is the origination of stress . . . . This is the cessation of stress . . . . This is the path of practice leading to the cessation of stress."

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From an academic perspective, these Buddhas are mythical, arguably the universe did not exist yet multitudes of billions of lifetimes ago, and the most realistic approximations we have of all humans that ever lived is around 100 billion.

To some extent, the division in ages you describe mirrors the Hindu concept of Yuga, which also divides the history of the universe into different degrading states: perfect (Satya), diminished virtue (Treta), lethargic (Dvapara) & darkness & ignorance (Kali). This similarity is not surprising: Buddhism first evolved in a region where Hinduism was predominant, and many other (modified though recognizable) Hindu concepts can be found in Buddhist cosmology (like Samsara, Karma and Reincarnation).

The concepts of Samsara & Karma are essential to understanding the reasoning behind these mythical Buddhas. Samsara consists of six realms: Devas (gods), Humans, Animals, Demons (Asura), Hellish Beings (Naraka), and Hungry/Frustrated Beings (Preta). In Buddhism, it is said that only from the human realm one can achieve Buddhahood, because the Devas are too happy, the Asuras too angry, the Pretas too frustrated, etc. Karmically speaking, if you're a Deva, you've gone too far "up the ladder" and must first be reborn as a human before you can attain Buddhahood, etc.

These mythical Buddhas can therefore be considered an expression of the attainability of Buddhahood by humans. Referring to these mythical Buddhas in the texts you quoted emphasizes this attainability, by making the historical Buddha state they came before him and others will follow him, so he is not the first nor the last.

So, in conclusion, the "prime mover" that governs the occurrence of Buddhas can first and foremost be equated to the human condition, subject to Karmic cause and effect.

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Deepangkara Buddha was born before Kondangna Buddha but the aeons between the two births are uncountable.

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Today I found this which seems to answer this question.

Chiggala Sutta: The Hole

"Monks, suppose that this great earth were totally covered with water, and a man were to toss a yoke with a single hole there. A wind from the east would push it west, a wind from the west would push it east. A wind from the north would push it south, a wind from the south would push it north. And suppose a blind sea-turtle were there. It would come to the surface once every one hundred years. Now what do you think: would that blind sea-turtle, coming to the surface once every one hundred years, stick his neck into the yoke with a single hole?"

"It would be a sheer coincidence, lord, that the blind sea-turtle, coming to the surface once every one hundred years, would stick his neck into the yoke with a single hole."

"It's likewise a sheer coincidence that one obtains the human state. It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a Tathagata, worthy & rightly self-awakened, arises in the world. It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a doctrine & discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world. Now, this human state has been obtained. A Tathagata, worthy & rightly self-awakened, has arisen in the world. A doctrine & discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world.

"Therefore your duty is the contemplation, 'This is stress... This is the origination of stress... This is the cessation of stress.' Your duty is the contemplation, 'This is the path of practice leading to the cessation of stress.'"

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