Can the same kamma cetana and action lead to somewhat different future physical consequences (the physical aspect of the kamma-vipaka)

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Accepted answer

Yes (the results can be different), e.g. because Mr. A and Mr. B are different in other ways.

Lonaphala Sutta

Mendicants, suppose you say: ‘No matter how this person performs a deed, they experience it the same way.’ This being so, the spiritual life could not be lived, and there’d be no chance of making a complete end of suffering. Suppose you say: ‘No matter how this person performs a deed, they experience the result as it should be experienced.’ This being so, the spiritual life can be lived, and there is a chance of making a complete end of suffering. Take the case of a person who does a trivial bad deed, but it lands them in hell. While another person does the same trivial bad deed, but experiences it in the present life, without even a bit left over, not to speak of a lot.

What kind of person does a trivial bad deed, but it lands them in hell? A person who hasn’t developed their physical endurance, ethics, mind, or wisdom. They’re small-minded and mean-spirited, living in suffering. That kind of person does a trivial bad deed, but it lands them in hell.

What kind of person does the same trivial bad deed, but experiences it in the present life, without even a bit left over, not to speak of a lot? A person who has developed their physical endurance, ethics, mind, and wisdom. They’re not small-minded, but are big-hearted, living without limits. That kind of person does the same trivial bad deed, but experiences it in the present life, without even a bit left over, not to speak of a lot.

Suppose a person was to drop a lump of salt into a small bowl of water. What do you think, mendicants? Would that small bowl of water become salty and undrinkable?” “Yes, sir. Why is that? Because there is only a little water in the bowl.” “Suppose a person was to drop a lump of salt into the Ganges river. What do you think, mendicants? Would the Ganges river become salty and undrinkable?” “No, sir. Why is that? Because the Ganges river is a vast mass of water.

etc. (another example)

I think that the first paragraph is saying that if every trivial deed would land everyone or anyone in hell then it wouldn't be possible for a holy life to result in enlightenment, liberation.

You might want to say this doesn't the answer the question, which asks about when "Mr A and Mr B are virtually identical". I'm not sure that question is answered in the suttas, though. I think that ("in the real world") people tend not to be "identical", that whatever "x" is isn't their only intentional action, and that Buddhism is meant to be practical (a doctrine of liberation) not theoretical (hypothetical or oversimplified doctrine of karma) -- and that an important, practical part of the doctrine is that the state of a person's mind, and how they live, makes a lot of difference.

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❓Can the same kamma cetana and action lead to different fruit-of-kamma (kamma vipaka)?

No, a specific cause has it's effect. But one may experiance it different and it's nearly impossible to act, in dependance in- and outwardly, in similar circumstances.

  • Cetana A has quality X followed by effect y

  • Cetana B has quality X followed by effect y

A x X = y - B x X = y => A=B 🔁

[Note: this gift of Dhamma has not be thought, is not dedicated, for any trade or wordily exchange or stacks]

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