What kill ratio would Nazi Germany need in 1945 to win?
score:8
Germany was starved for resources and in a bad strategic position from the very first day of WWII. Winning by attrition (a.k.a. "kill ratios") was never really an option. The whole idea for Germany was to win in a series of quick raids, using surprise and (hopefully) superior training and tactics to win strategically before economic factors took hold. This worked in Poland 1939, in Norway and France 1940, in Greece 1941... but those campaigns (plus the unsuccessful Battle of Britain) had blunted the spear, so to speak, and so it didn't work in Russia in 1941.
From there onwards, it turned into a war of attrition. In such an environment, your "kills" vs. enemy "kills" do not paint a correct picture. You have to look at two separate ratios:
- Own losses vs. own replacement capabilities, and
- enemy losses vs. enemy replacement capabilities.
To be in a "winning" position, you need...
- your own losses not exceeding your own replacement capabilities (i.e. "not losing"), and
- enemy losses exceeding enemy replacement capabilities (i.e. "winning").
That was a losing proposition for Germany even in 1942, indicated by the fact that their 1942 offensive in the east (Fall Blau) was no longer an attempt to actually defeat the Russian army, but a desperate bid for the resources of the Caucasus region.
Two and a half years later, in 1945, Germany...
- was fielding Hitler Youth and Volkssturm units as they rapidly ran out of men in the proper age bracket to recruit;
- did send up pilots who hardly knew how to control their aircraft, as they did not have the fuel to train them properly;
- had its surface fleet annihilated and lost the Atlantic harbors, the U-Boats retreating to the North Sea (where they were ineffective at stopping merchant shipping);
- had its production capabilities for just about anything (together with the residential areas of just about every major city) bombed into oblivion;
- had its last strategic offensive operation in the east (Battle of Kursk) dating August 1943, and the last strategic offensive operation in the west (Battle of the Bulge) just depleted the very last reserves Germany could muster.
At the same time Germany was running out of virtually everything, all Allies had their production capacities unthreatened by either ground or air attack (if you discount V-1 and V-2 "terror attacks" on London, which wasn't even targeted as a major production city but rather because they could not hope to hit anything smaller).
So Germany's replacement capabilities were rapidly approaching zero, while Allied replacement capabilites, if not exactly unlimited, were not limited for any practical purpose.
There was no rational way that anything Germany could do by 1945 would have swung around those odds. The Kriegsmarine was basically out of the picture, the Allies had complete air superiority over Germany (let alone their own airspace), and the Wehrmacht was really scraping the bottom of the barrel.
You know what happens if you try to divide by zero, or by infinity:
What kill ratio would Nazi Germany need in 1945 to win?
Computation error.
We would be looking at ridiculously high numbers, because Germany could no longer afford any further losses, and the Allies were better equipped than ever before.
Imagine a miracle tank that could defeat enemies 1000:1. Or a miracle jet plane that could defeat enemies 1000:1. If you have only a handful of those, your enemy can still swamp you. (As the Russians showcased pretty much throughout the war.)
By 1945 the war was lost for Germany regardless of how effective they would fight (short of summoning several thousand Iron Man suits from thin air). The German armed forces had been bled dry.
And even the highest possible kill-ratio does not give Germany any fuel...
To win the war on a strategic level (which, as I hope I have pointed out, has little to do with kill numbers) in 1945, Germany would have needed to advance back into Russia (forcing the USSR into armistice), would have needed to advance back into the Atlantic (forcing the UK into armistice), and then somehow, miraculously, do {...} to force the USA into armistice.
Because by this time, none of the Allies would have surrendered to a Germany pressed back to its own borders simply because losses soared. The Allies were so close to winning the war, strategically, that they would probably have gone to quite some lengths, losses-wise, to see it through.
A turn-around for Germany, aside from ridiculous kill numbers, would have required men, weapons, fuel, trains, planes, ships, and time that Germany just did not have anymore. And the Allies knew that perfectly well.
Upvote:1
In 1945 the Germans were not in a position to even negotiate an unfavorable armistice. Much less win the war. All they could do is sign on the dotted line and hope for the best.
100 to 1 is what Luftwaffe fighters encountered on a quiet day. After Operation Bodenplatte there wasn't much left of the Luftwaffe. They had more problems that were unsolvable: there were planes, yes. But almost no experienced pilots to fly them. Even if there were a few pilots and planes available: not enough fuel.
Which is something the Luftwaffe knew very well: Bodenplatte means bottom plate; scraping the last bits of bottom of the barrel.
The situation for the Kriegsmarine was even worse. The U-boats were defeated in the Battle of the Atlantic. All capital ships were either sunk or permanently out of action.
What about the Wehrmacht? Same story. Not enough fuel to operate motor vehicles, conscripts that were either too old or too young to fight were called up (Volkssturm). Soldiers otherwise unfit to fight were dragooned into 'stomach divisions' (Especially the 70th division) where you had many doctors and orderlies to keep the soldiers more or less standing up.
In 1945 most of the Wehrmacht had been de-motorized for lack of fuel. They didn't need too many reconnaissance units anymore, but their recce units were now doing their jobs on bicycles. Not in armored cars, for want of fuel.
Now, supposing they would be able to hold out for a couple more months? In that case Germany would have had the dubious honor of being the first country to be nuked. What prevented Nuremberg (probably) from becoming Hiroshima was the surrender in may 1945. Had they been able to hold out until September, the first nuke would have been used on Germany.
No matter how you cut it - Germany was utterly and totally defeated. Hitler's 'wonder weapons' were too little and far, far too late to make any kind of a difference.
To give you an example:
The Messerschmidt 262 wasn't introduced too late because of Hitler. It was introduced too early. It was rushed through the development program, in order to get it asap into battle. Far quicker than was required or save. It couldn't have been introduced any earlier.
Now, supposing by some miracle Germany was capable of building any number of Me 262's you want. Who's going to fly it? Not enough pilots anymore. How are you going to fly it? Not enough fuel. From where will you fly it? All airfields were either out of operation, destroyed or under attack.
That's just one wonder weapon that didn't work - even in the most optimistic scenarios that nearly always forget to mention the lack of materials, fuel and logistics.
More post
- 📝 In the 19th century, what brought on a general election in the United Kingdom?
- 📝 What role did Jews play in the Punic Wars?
- 📝 What is the origin of the Arabs in pre-Islamic Yemen and Arabia?
- 📝 Did Gorbachev say that his intention was to destroy Communism?
- 📝 What was Japan's grand strategy in WW2?
- 📝 When, and where, was the word 'Anglican' first used in the context of the Protestant Church of England?
- 📝 Who said "one can be a powerful king with a very small sceptre"?
- 📝 Was the Battle of Tours really the turning point for the Umayyad expansion into Europe?
- 📝 Did Ancient Roman insulae reach more than 10 storeys?
- 📝 What happened to Muslim spouses who converted to Christianity during the 1923 Graeco-Turkish population exchange?
- 📝 Surrender Ceremonies at the End of WW2: What happened after documents signed?
- 📝 (How) Did criminals in the middle ages get treatment for injuries?
- 📝 Who is the person sitting to the left of corporal Hitler?
- 📝 How to attack Fort Ross
- 📝 Why did ships like the HMS Victory have cannon wells?
- 📝 Where did the French revolutionists get their weapons?
- 📝 What do they do with corpses after a battle?
- 📝 Is there a definition of history separate from the definition of politics?
- 📝 How long did it take for Japanese high command to believe 1 bomb could destroy a city?
- 📝 Why have "classical" given names (seemingly) had greater persistence in American black culture?
- 📝 WWI trench tactics using shields?
- 📝 Has a hereditary peer ever been promoted or demoted to a higher or lower rank?
- 📝 What is this military patch with the silhouette of a pegasus on it?
- 📝 How did Sweden come out so unscathed physically and morally from WW2?
- 📝 What was the goal behind the 9 state approval of the United States constitution?
- 📝 Was Walden Pond ever the primary source for rail transported ice?
- 📝 How was Galileo's approach to mathematics different than Descartes's approach?
- 📝 What are the outer vests/jackets that samurai wear?
- 📝 What did education look like in occupied countries during WW2?
- 📝 Were Kayanian and Pishdadian actually a thing?
Source: stackoverflow.com
Search Posts
Related post
- 📝 What kill ratio would Nazi Germany need in 1945 to win?
- 📝 Were there any Germans in Japan after the surrender of Germany in May, 1945 and if so, what happened to them?
- 📝 From 1936-45 what was the prescribed punishment in Nazi Germany for failing to join or participate in the Hitler Youth?
- 📝 What oath did medical students take in Nazi Germany between 1933 and 1945?
- 📝 What currently existing IT companies collaborated with Nazi Germany or Fascist Italy?
- 📝 Which historian suggested that not building a navy would have enabled Germany to win WW1?
- 📝 What was the area of Nazi Germany at its height?
- 📝 Could German citizens visit Japan during the Nazi era? And if so what would the locals think of them?
- 📝 Did Nazi Germany conduct systematic experiments on prisoners on what it takes to kill/injure a human with electricity?
- 📝 How did Nazi Germany finance itself during WW2?
- 📝 Did Imperial Japan choose to ally with Nazi Germany because of ideological similarity?
- 📝 What did Germany do in World War II about the different rail gauge in the Soviet Union?
- 📝 What was the purpose of Nazi extermination camps?
- 📝 How did Nazi Germany produce such an impressive portfolio of officers for WW2?
- 📝 What would have been the typical drinks for a US farmer in the late 18th/early 19th century?
- 📝 In the Medieval period, how long would an average swordsmith need to forge an average sword?
- 📝 Did Churchill and Roosevelt know about the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, or the following secret pacts between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union?
- 📝 What became of Nazi Germany's embassies in neutral countries?
- 📝 What did Germany do after World War II to recover so successfully that it became more prosperous than its WW2 victors?
- 📝 What was the ratio of German to Soviet losses on Eastern front during different stages of the war?
- 📝 What was the planned line of succession for the Nazi Party in the event that Hitler died?
- 📝 What would have been the price of a loaf of bread in 1645 Amsterdam?
- 📝 What courses would have been required to get a B.A. in America in the 1930s?
- 📝 What was the ratio women to men after World War 2 in the Soviet Union
- 📝 What would a Roman slave be legally required to do if his master vanished?
- 📝 What would a Norseman in the early 11th century have worn as daily clothing?
- 📝 What goods did Germany trade during World War II, and with whom?
- 📝 What does the skull and crossbones on the Nazi uniform represent?
- 📝 What reasons did the Confederacy have for believing they would have a quick victory?
- 📝 What were the Nazi racial views on Hungarians and the Japanese?