How does the "conspiracy theory" work in China and for what purpose?
Upvote:1
There is certainly evidence that the US is somewhat wary of China. I think one can safely assume that the US is not at all interested in China conquering Taiwan and also not a big fan of Chinese actions in the South China Sea. On the other hand the US has, in the past, brought lots and lots of business to China, so the waryness is either quite new or not so bad that it would influence economic decisions much.
By contrast, during the Cold War, Eastern European countries could not even (officially) import computers from the west, so no, we are not at Cold War levels of rivalry yet. Wikipedia lists a few more commonly-cited features of the Cold War, such as proxy conflicts, a nuclear arms race, and significant military deployments abroad (sometimes face to face with each other). I don't see any of these either.
Anything about secret plans is of course unknowable (the plans would not be secret otherwise), so I won't comment on that.
I also did not see anything in your source about the Soviet Union (rather than Russia) trusting the US, but I also think that argument is not very relevant to the topic of this question. Foreign powers are per se not very trustworthy.
The bit about Russia asking to join NATO could use more elaboration (though possibly in a separate question). Anyway it is easy to spot at least three grave problems with such an idea, two of which are independent from US interests: 1. Russia wanting to join NATO could easily be interpreted as Russia wanting to influence NATO. From the more recent example of Hungary in the EU, it is easy to see how such influence might not be constructive. 2. NATO by that point had several member states that had experienced what it meant to be in a military alliance with the Soviet Union: giving up any political leeway and getting nothing in return. 3. Russia at that time was involved in several armed conflicts.
Upvote:4
Most conspiracy narratives -- I hesitate to use the word 'theory' because they are not scientific -- try to explain observed events in the world with some sinister conspiracy, often assigning evil, hidden motives by shadowy power groups. In this case that is completely unnecessary.
- From their public statements, the US wants to create an international order which is compatible with the US economic and social system, and which gives them an influential position in world politics.
- From their public statements, the China wants to create an international order which is compatible with the Chinese economic and social system, and which gives them an influential position in world politics.
- From their public statements, both China and the United States understand that the other is a rival in the shaping of the international order.
No need to 'theorize' about 'conspiracies' ...
This does not mean China and the United States have to try and destroy each other. A century ago, the US and the UK were geopolitical rivals, but they came to an accomodation when the UK realized that it could no longer defeat the US, and that their political visions were not necessarily incompatible.
But today China and the US clearly are rivals. The US is the status quo power while China is the revisionist power. China still smarts from the unequal treaties, inflicted in part by the US, and the incomplete conclusion of their civil war, at least as they see it -- again inflicted in part by the US. In their wish to overcome this, China tries to expand their power base, at the expense of US power left from the Cold War alliances.
But the rivalry between the US and China is quite different from the Cold War. The economic interdependency of the West and China is much greater than the trade between the West and the Communist bloc used to be.
As to the history of the Soviet Union and the United States, consider the Allied intervention in Russia. Relations were much better while Stalin was fighting Hitler, of course.
After the end of the Cold War, Russian political and military power collapsed. During that time, there was some structured cooperation between Russia and NATO, and theoretical talk of a Russian NATO membership. But with their resurgence under President Putin, Russia decided to forcibly secure their influence in many of the ex-Soviet nations, and relations between Russia and the West deteriorated. We simply cannot know how things would have played out if Russia had become the second-most-powerful member of NATO. Would that have created an even more messy power struggle a decade later, with NATO paralyzed from within, or would it have reassured Russia so that they could direct their ambitions is more peaceful ways?
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