Chronological plausibility of "liars don’t make good martyrs?"

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King Agrippa began persecuting Christians less than a decade after the crucifixion. And that's just the official persecution.

Saul (yes, that Saul) claimed to have witnessed the stoning of Stephen one year after the crucifixion. Christians were considered by many Jews to be dangerous apostates, and in a time of tremendous social upheaval we should not be surprised that they were persecuted.

Saul/Paul himself was imprisoned more than once. There is little reason to doubt Paul's words about such events - his letters seem candid and often mention details that are somewhat embarrassing. A better liar would likely have presented himself in a better light.

Finally, Nero made persecution imperial policy roughly 32 years after the event. Most of the apostles (that had survived as long) were likely in their mid-50's. Tradition states that 10 of the 12 were martyred. You can quibble with the numbers - few deaths of any kind in that era were documented - but it is hard to make a serious argument that the early disciples of Christ didn't face considerable risk in their efforts to spread their faith.

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