Why did the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact take 2 years to sign after the Battle of Khalkin Gol?

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Accepted answer

The Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact was not signed because they bloodied each other's noses and were done. It was signed because both sides knew they were about to go to war. The Soviets with Germany and Japan with the US. Both sides were eager to secure their flank from the other.

On the Japanese side there was a debate between a northern and southern strategies. The army backed Hokushin-ron aimed at China, Manchuria, and Siberia. The navy backed Nanshin-ron aimed at Indochina and the South Pacific.

Khalkhin Gol spelled the decline of Hokushin-ron, but it took some time for this to be fully abandoned, for the navy to gain supremacy, and for tensions with the US to reach a boiling point.

The Soviets and Germans had no illusions that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact would hold. Hitler was very clear about his contempt for the Slavs and plans to expand eastward. The Soviets were eager to delay the coming war with Germany as long as possible to give themselves more time to prepare, something made very acute after their humiliation in the Winter War with Finland. The Germans wanted to secure their Eastern flank while they were stomping around Western Europe and Scandinavia, as well as secure valuable resources that would be cut off in the inevitable Allied blockade.

The Soviets were riding a knife edge with Germany. On the one hand, there were talks of the Soviet Union joining the Axis in late 1940, but these went nowhere. On the other hand, German and Soviet paranoia meant any move could be seen as hostile. A Soviet treaty with Japan could been seen as strengthening ties with the Axis, or it would be seen as securing their flank in preparation for war with Germany.

Once Japan joined the Axis in late 1940 it became more clear that a treaty with Japan would be seen, publicly anyway, as a gesture of goodwill and peace towards the Axis. The Soviets ultimately decided to negotiate a treaty. Meanwhile Germany had already decided to invade.

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I think the answer is how Japan viewed the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Japan was moving toward war with the USSR thinking Germany was doing the same.

After the defeat at Khailkhin Gol, Japan knew it would need a larger commitment. With the pact, Japan also knew it could not count on Germany. That is, had Japan attacked the USSR after Germany invaded, the fear was that Germany would make peace with the USSR. Japan waited to make peace because it wanted to keep the world guessing.

Upvote:1

What I got from War in the Far East volume 1, by Harmsen is that, in mid 1939, Japan was not only wanting to insulate itself from USSR risks, it was hoping for an expanded German-USSR-Japan axis to allow a unified stance against the powers Japan was either at war with or potentially hostile to:

China, USA, UK

In other words, it didn't them 2 years to draw a line under Khalkin Gol and expanding into Russia. It took them 2 years to get to a point where they partially committed to good relations with Russia with the hope of closer relations on an expanded Axis, including Russia, because they were already buddies with Germany.

Apparently, once they knew of Barbarossa, they told Russia they'd not have signed it if they knew Germany's intentions. That can be either because they'd have wanted to participate in that attack. Or because they knew the Japan-Germany-Russia axis was futile.

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