Upvote:2
I suspect that there is no reliable answer; the point of the story seems not to be to report fact, but to establish that Lincoln was physically capable and emotionally agile enough to turn an adversary into a friend.
Jack Norton agrees that Lincoln won the match. Mr. Lincoln and Friends agrees, but they have a dramatically different play by play. Mr. Lincoln & friends admits that there are various tellings of the tale and provides footnotes for further research.\
The Claremont institute is on the "Lincoln Lost" side of the fence,
Although several conflicting eyewitness accounts of the match exist, the accounts generally agree that Armstrong narrowly escaped losing to Lincoln by some sort of sharp practice.
Abraham Lincoln in the classroom references both sides of the story, and names the eyewitness for one, which to my mind makes it much more credible.