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There is no identified scriptural source for this, which is meant to be from one of Padmasambhava’s terma texts. The earliest version of this apocrypha appears in the US in the 1980s, suggesting that it is a bit made-up. However, to be more generous, this may be a poetic mash-up of earlier sources, perhaps intended to resonate for modern times. Thus, the 9th Century Prophecy of the Khotanese Arhat (a Dunhuang document) declares “A bodhisattva will take birth as the king of the Red-Faced Ones and the practice of the true dharma will come to the land of Tibet” (I’m using Sam Van Schaik’s translation there).
Here, Red-Faced Ones in Tibetan is gdong-dmar (pron. dongmar) and refers very explicitly to Tibetans. The king in this case is Songtsen Gampo, who was (and is) regarded as a great bodhisattva, builder of the Jokhang Temple and founder of Lhasa.
More generously still, the first temple Songtsen Gampo ever founded was Trandruk in the Yarlung Valley, whose name means Thundering Falcon, referring to a magical bird summoned by Songtsen Gampo to kill a great water spirit that had flooded the valley. The bird is described as having wings of iron (hence, iron bird?) which it used to cut off the five heads of the naga spirit. This last tale is taken from a 16th C pilgrimage guide to Trandruk Temple (check out Per Sorensen’s book on the subject if you’re interested).
So, this MIGHT suggest that elements if the “myth” were recycled mash-ups from the life of Songtsen Gampo (150 years before Padmasambhava), but (again, to be generous) Tibetan prophecies have always been written with a certain vagueness to them - to echo through history in the way that trulku and terma also resonate, century after century.
This, by the way, is only a suggested interpretation of my own: I have no idea whether Sam Van Schaik or Per Sorensen would agree!
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The "iron bird" portion can't be a reference to a year. That's ignoring the male and female system of the Tibetan lunar calendar, if the iron bird was a reference to a year it would have a male or female tag on it. Also, why do they mention the horse? The horse is also an animal in the Tibetan lunar calendar. Is that a reference to a horse year too, since it's right next to the iron bird portion? It makes far more sense in reference of modern transportation.
Everyone sees it as a clear metaphor for planes and cars from the 8th century. Not just the Kagyupa.
His Holiness the Dalai Lama visited the Navajo Nation one time, that's also a good example of the Dharma coming to the land of the Red Man (basically the Native Americans' homeland).
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I thought it was fulfilled when china invaded Tibet, and the world took in the Tibetan people, and they brought us the glorious BuddhaDharma
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I always felt a bit doubtful of the interpretation of this prophecy
a) Birds made from Iron will never fly, they are too heavy.
b) Horses will run on wheels, why should they, they got 4 perfectly shaped legs
and to "see" in this sentence an automobile or a train is absurd.
c) The red faced men......I never accepted this because no matter how hard I
try, I have never seen the faces of Native americans as red but more like
olive- brown.
Also, the seat of the 16th Karmapa was in Rumtek. Other centers in the world are just "other" Dharma centers or if you prefer other main -Dharma centers
be happy Karma Lodro Singhi
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The 16th Karmapa visited the Hopi Indians and fulfilled the prophesy however Guru Rinpoche was not only speaking about the aKarma Kagyu lineage he spoke about Tibetans...saying they would scatter like ants across the Earth. However, back to the Karma Kagyu Lineage : Yeshe Tsogyal asked Guru Rinpoche who or what could help Humanity at this time of great upheavals and degenetation. Guru Rinpoche stated that during the time of the Tibetans being spread across the Earthlike ants and the Red Robes coming to the land of the Red Men there will be one and his name will be Karmapa to help guide sentient beings through these troubled times and that the Karmapa was one of his 35 main disciples at that time.. So the Karma Kagyu lineage has a very strong connection the the USA and this is why the 16th Karmapa made his seat in the west in the USA and not Europe or other Western Countries.
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In the Karma Kagyu tradition of Tibetan Buddhism we interpret this saying in a different way.
We interpret the iron birds as the airplanes and the horses running on wheels as the trains or automobiles.
The prophecy was fulfilled when the XVI Karmapa visited the Sioux Indians in the seventies.