Is "relatively low" flight prices plus "no fee for change" as good as it sounds?

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Accepted answer

Is “relatively low” flight prices plus “no fee for change” as good as it sounds?

No.

At the moment it's a bad deal. Airlines are desperate and will do whatever they can to get hands on cash. They may artificially lower price to lure people into booking. If the airline need to cancels the flight, they are legally required to refund the money to you. However, many airlines currently refuse refunds (in violation of the law) and will drag out the refund process as much as they can.

If you need to cancel or change your flight, you do not have to pay a change fee, but you still need to pay whatever price the airline will charge at this time. As soon as travel becomes possible again, airlines are very likely to hike prices: there is a lot of pent up travel demand and many customers are sitting on vouchers with expiration dates that otherwise will go to waste.

So it's a low risk strategy of the airline: they get some cash and can hold onto it and maybe convert you to a more expensive ticket in the future.

There is also the non-trivial risk of airlines going bankrupt. In this case you are out of your money and will get nothing in return (realistically).

Upvote:1

I agree with everything that Hilmar stated in his excellent answer. Airlines are in deep trouble and the danger of bankruptcy is real. In such an event your travel booking could loose all value.

That said, any poorly managed airline can go bankrupt with little or no warning. This has happened many times before and never required a pandemic as an excuse. Its an unavoidable risk of travel and business in general.

A low cost ticket with no change fees can be a good option if you want to lock in travel but maintain flexibility for yourself. If the airline cancels the flight, that is always beyond your control and you'll have to reschedule with them regardless. However, if you don't mind waiting on hold for potentially hours to speak with their representative, this no change fee option obligates them to alter the flight dates based on your whims.

Accurately predicting if the price of alternate travel dates will go up or down is probably impossible and certainly a waste of time. In the event that you decide to change dates, you may as likely end up with a flight that costs less than the original. In which case the airline will give you the difference probably as a voucher towards a future flight.

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