score:3
If it is an option, it would be wise to have both the Austin (AUS) to Newark (EWR) flight and Newark (EWR) to Tel Aviv (TLV) flight booked on the same itinerary as a single Austin to Tel Aviv journey. If nothing else, this should mean that United will make sure that you get on a subsequent flight at no extra charge if the connection doesn't work out.
Based on personal experience, I once had a United flight from Austin to Newark sit on the runway for at least a couple of hours due to "waiting for the arrival of a late inbound crew" and I missed the international connection in Newark.
It was supposed to be a comfortable layover of 3 to 4 hours or so, but it was not. It was a driven to the gate in a cart honking all the way kind of experience only to discover that the international flight still was on the runway, but it had closed and I was not allowed to board. Because it was booked as a single ticket, though, United put me up for the night in a hotel and then I departed from Newark the subsequent evening (after enjoying an unexpected day wandering around in NYC).
4.5 hours should be enough time if everything goes as intended. However, in the last 30 days, UA 324 out of Austin had its departures delayed 12 times and arrived late 7 times in Newark. Unless I'm missing something, UA 324 also appears to be scheduled to arrive in Newark an hour or so later than you specified in your question, so double check those times.
For UA 324, at least one of those delays certainly would cause you to miss the connecting flight. Others look like you could fall into the same not quite enough time trap I did. On the other hand, in the last 30 days, UA 90 also had its departures delayed 28 times, which might improve your odds a bit if boarding still is allowed.
Hope this helps you calculate your odds. If you cannot book the flights together on the same United ticket itinerary, it would be a good idea to instead book an earlier flight out of Austin.
Upvote:2
When you self-connect (book the flights separately), the issue is that if you do not check-in in time for the second flight (i.e. before the check-in deadline, which is 1 hour for UA at EWR), you're considered a no-show, and the airline is quite likely to cancel your ticket, including any further segments on the same ticket (e.g. a return flight).
In that case, you have to rebook a new flight, at your expense, at last minute prices (often much more expensive), and if you need to spend the night, any hotels, meals, transfers will be for you to pay as well. If the two flights were on a single ticket, all of that would be the airline's responsibility.
When the second flight is a frequent and cheap flight, one can easily take the risk. When it's an unfrequent and more expensive flight, the risk is quite different. It's up to you to decide whether you are willing to take that risk.
If all goes well, 4.5 hours to do this (which is really 3.5 hours from plane to check-in, which is usually the critical path) should be more than enough:
Realistically, I would think that if the first flight is on time, even 2 hours should be more than enough.
The issue is what happens if the first flight is delayed or cancelled. With a total of 4.5 hours, you have a buffer of about 2.5 hours. That should cover most small delays, but not the larger ones, and probably not the case of a cancelled flight.
If you can, book the whole itinerary as a single ticket and make that the airline's problem. If the international flight is already booked, check with the airline if it can be changed.
If you cannot, it's up to you to judge whether you can afford the risk incurred. If you're travelling on any kind of peak period (holidays for instance), or during periods where significant disruption can be expected (snow storm in NYC for instance), the risk of significant delays and/or high costs to rebook can be quite high, so factor that in.