Why did Italy's Battle for Births fail?
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However, the birth and marriage rates showed no significant change.
True, China has currently exactly the same problem, for almost the same reasons.
Did Mussolini actually believe he could raise the population to 60 million?
Probably. Otherwise, why bother?
And if so, why couldn't he? Was WW2 a factor?
No. Do the math: Mussolini ordered Italians to 'hide the salami' more often in 1927. The age of conscription was 18 years. The first batch would be ready in 1945. Even in 1927, his order came too late to be of any significance during WW2.
Demographics is like a mammoth tanker: slow and very difficult to change course. Once you realize you're going to run into something, it's already too late. No matter what you do, the accident will happen.
The Chinese government is discovering this right now. It's not easy to order people to do something they don't want to do. Especially if that something is expensive and time-consuming.
Raising children is very expensive. Especially as the Chinese government wants everybody to have 3 or more children. That means the mother has to stay home, and cannot provide additional income. With 3 or more children, subsidized daycare simply doesn't cut it. One also needs a bigger house. Houses are extremely expensive in China. For an ordinary family, it is simply not possible to have 3 children.
There is another issue the Chinese government didn't consider: after a full generation grew up as a single child, that generation simply doesn't want larger families. If they want children at all - many young couples do not want any children, not even one.
Getting back to Mussolini: one of the reasons his plan didn't work is that he wanted the benefit (for the state) of many children, but was not willing to pay for it. Parents followed the party line, but only where it made sense. Going into poverty because Mussolini wants more children made very little sense. Yes, there were definite benefits, as @Lars Bosteen said in the comments. But not enough to make it worthwhile for most families.
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