The visa systems want to let the “right” visitors in and keep the “wrong” visitors out. The “right” visitors are those who spend money on the tourist sector or negotiate business deals and then leave again, the “wrong” visitors are those who claim refugee status or overstay and work illegally.
(The hypocrisy of nations who remain signatory to various refugee conventions and make it all but impossible for a genuine refugee to apply is a matter for Politics Stack Exchange.)
Of course they cannot tell the intention of the visitor in advance. So they look at other things.
The last two bullet points are where your question comes in. Note that proof of onward travel is not, strictly speaking, necessary for a Schengen visa if the rest of your situation looks good enough. But without it (i.e. if your means of onward travel is simply a fat bank account and a “I’ll find something”) there will be more scrutiny of the rest of the application.
I’ve always thought the main reason was to deter visitors who do not intend to return back home (e.g. unwanted migrants into France) early on, and that in some parts of the world a secondary reason may be to collect and link up intelligence information about visitors (e.g. foreigners traveling in China) also early on.
As to whether such rules can still be effective and specifically for the second (conjectured) reason, there may be a sort of continuous arms race going on: Governments’ means for harvesting and and linking digital information are clearly increasing, on the other hand it is nowadays simple enough to make a “fake” reservation and then cancel it.
For instance, the section on Entry requirements in the current Rough Guide to China plainly recommends this:
You will need to fill out a form with a detailed itinerary of your
proposed trip, along with proof of a return ticket and accommodation
restorations for every night that you’re in China. To get around that
last hurdle, find a hotel via ctrip.com that doesn’t require your
credit card details to make the reservation, book if for the duration,
and then cancel the booking once you have your visa.
Credit:stackoverflow.com‘
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