Is traveling to Italy safe during the COVID-19 outbreak?

No, I think that by now, we can definitely say it isn’t. Cancel your trip, just as I did.
I know it is hard, I myself will lose at least 1,050 € (one-thousand and fifty euros), but do it anyway, this is safe.

Is it safe? Probably

But should you reconsider your trip?

As mentioned in other answers the CDC has issues a Level 3 Warning. Avoid Nonessential Travel.

Here are a couple of things to consider

• Due to incubation period there is a lag time, so the cases in the Lazio region are probably under reported at the present time.
• You will be travelling through high risk areas. Airports / tourist hotspots etc. Because of this you will experience evelated risk.
• If the situation develops in Italy. You will be out out your comfort zone. You will be totally reliant on Italian authorities.
• If you catch the virus and bring it home. The risk to yourself may be low but vulnerable members of your community e.g grandparents are exposed to a much greater risk.

If you do decide to go ahead. You may have to wear masks in public and be filled with worry. With the possibility of quarantine and isolation when you come home. This might have an impact on your work. My advice is to cancel.

Statistically the risk is believed to be small based on what is known.

There are unknown and unknowable factors which may make the risk far higher than is presently apparent but the chances of this are small. For example

• People with no symptoms or detectable infection are subsequently proving infected days after appearing clear.

• People in rare (so far) cases are becoming infected with no known source, suggesting transmission modes not so far well understood.

Sensible precautions against the many well known, commonly experienced and wide spread dangers will improve your chances of staying alive far more than strongly avoiding any country where COVID-19 is present.

• The risk of a young to not-too-old tourist dying from COVID-19 if they follow WHO guidelines on sensible behaviour is so far FAR smaller than the risk of dying in a vehicle-pedestrian accident while undertaking normal tourist activities. Looking both ways several times more than usual when crossing Italian roads – especially in Rome ! 🙂 – will much reduce your risk of dying on holiday than will avoiding COVID-19.

• At present the risk of dying from ‘flu’ is vastly greater than from COVID-19* if you are not innoculated against ‘flu.

*CDC estimates that ‘flu kills 300 – 650 thousand people annually worldwide

An important factor to consider when deciding whether to enter to an area of known increased COVID-19 risk, no matter how small the real risk may be, is its potential effects on your subsequent ability to travel elsewhere or even perhaps the ability to leave the area. You may be prevented from entering other countries, and / or be required to undergo some version of quarantine or isolation.

I’m currently in Rome, where you are considering travelling. The situation here is normal, given there are very few reported confirmed cases (6 so far, including 3 that have been declared ‘recovered’).

In general, people are more cautious with being near each other but mostly people are going about their business as usual. For example, if you go to a supermarket you will see, especially in larger chains, staff generally wearing gloves to handle items. This is probably mandated from management, and it is in response to people concerned about the possible spread of the virus. You also see the occasional customer wearing gloves when shopping.

Please bear in mind that Rome is relatively far from the northern part of Italy, where currently an outbreak has been declared and a number of towns have been quarantined.

Having said all of the above, nobody can give you 100% assurance that anywhere is safe right now. Just look at cases recently reported in both the UK and the US. Such cases do not seem to have any clear links to people who came from any of the affected areas.

You should perform your own risk assessment. Are you travelling with people who are in a category deemed to be vulnerable (e.g. people with chronic/established health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, etc. / elderly people) ? If so, even though the risk of infection is low in Rome, the impact of that risk could be very high and it should not be underestimated.

Also, this is a rapidly evolving situation. If you are travelling for leisure and, during your stay, the situation in central Italy changes, you may end up being stuck here for longer than you planned, as authorities and/or airlines update their operational guidance. Check what happened to the passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise, or international guests in Tenerife, who are currently under quarantine for 14 days at least.
In that case, if you can’t afford to be away from your base location for longer than you had intended you should consider what the impact of a forced prolonged stay is for you and your travel companions.

As said, the best you can do is to take into account:

• Official guidelines and expert advice
• Possible travel restrictions
• The medical situation if you need treatment there or at home

The decision is then down to your personal risk tolerance. Nobody can do that for you. It may also depend on factors as how important the travel is for you.

Official Advisories (as of 02/29/2020)

• The CDC and US state department advise against all nonessential Travel
• On the other hands, the British Foreign Office only advises against travel to the regions that are actually affected. Same for the German RKI (their version of the CDC) and government
• The EDC (European Center for Disease Control) advises against travel to “areas with community transmission”, but currently considers the outbreak in Italy “localized”
• The WHO doesn’t seem to give specific advice at travellers, other than to take “precautions”

All official advice on precautions boils down to: Wash your hands; and avoid coughing/sneezing on other people.

Also, note that your travel insurance will usually pay up when your home government advises against travel.

(Future) Travel restrictions

It is impossible to say how, or how fast, the situation will change.

The WHO advises, and countries have implemented, entry and exit checks for at-risk countries. There is currently not general travel restrictions for Italy;
but that could change if the situation changes. Some workplaces also have policies for people returning from at-risk areas.

If there are checks, you could even get stuck when having “mundane” respiratory illnesses and/or fever – an it is flu season, regardless of COVID-19

Medical care

For any travel you should check your medical insurance and make sure you know how to access medical care. All western European countries have a good public health systems, and high-quality care is generally available. While the EDC sees a “moderate” risk for the health system, it is unlikely all Italy will get swamped next week.

Other factors

• The EDC currently considers the overall risk “moderate”. While new cases are expected to show up, there are currently still very few.
• 80% the cases are mild, 20% severe, one of 4 or 5 of which is critical.
• The fatality rate isn’t exactly known (estimates between 0.5% and 3%), but is certainly much higher than the normal, seasonal flu (0.1%).
• From the current statistics, elderly people seem most at risk (of dying when they have it, not contracting it), and men more than women. Still, there are cases were healthy, mid-aged people have died from the disease.

UPDATE: 2020-03-09 23:00

New measures have been announced in Italy effectively placing the whole country under quarantine.

Travel within Italy will be greatly restricted.

Temporary visitors will be allowed to leave.

Visitors entries will probably not be allowed

• even if allowed in, travel around Italy will be restricted

Coronavirus: Italy extends strict quarantine measures nationwide – BBC News 2020-03-09 23:00

The government has said only those with a valid work or family reason that cannot be postponed will be permitted to travel.

Passengers departing on flights, except temporary visitors, will have to justify themselves, as will all those arriving by plane.

There are controls at train stations to check temperatures.

Cruise ships are forbidden to dock at various ports.

I don’t think anyone here can give a useful advise. It’s best to follow the instructions of the authorities. – @Bernhard

This statement is correct, since this is a matter that each person must decide for themselves, based on available information.

Some of that information is:

• 2 Italian regions (Lombardy and Veneto) are affected
  • cause is at present unknown
• casual travelers from or through northern Italy have carried the virus to neighboring countries
  • Austria, France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland
• in Germany it was further spread during a visits to a Carnival celebrations
  • where it is known that an affected person attended that had just come back from Italy
• many newly infected persons are normally healthy persons
• public events in Switzerland (of more that 1000 peaple) and Germany (where the International Travel Fair (ITB) in Berlin, due to start on the 4th of March, has just been cancelled) should not take place

Based on this, one could assume that it will also spread to other regions of Italy.

These would be the facts that I would take into consideration if I had to make the decision to visit a good friend in the Toscana region at the present time.

Sources:

• Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts – Worldometer
  • Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance
  • Latest Updates
    • sorted by day (latest first) and continent
      • in great detail per country
  • Coronavirus Symptoms (COVID-19)

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the US government’s public health agency, currently gives the following advice about travel to Italy:

Warning – Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel—Widespread Community Transmission

CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Italy. There is limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas. … If you must travel:

• Avoid contact with sick people.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
• Clean your hands often by washing them with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at 60%–95% alcohol. Soap and water should be used if hands are visibly dirty.
  • It is especially important to clean hands after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after coughing, sneezing or blowing your nose.
  • Supplies of hand sanitizer, tissues, and other hygiene products may be limited, so consider bringing them with you.
• Pay attention to your health during travel and for 14 days after you leave.

It is probably advisable to postpone travel to Italy at this time.

Note that this advice is comparable to the "Level 3" advice for China and South Korea. For those countries, the CDC recommends that everyone avoid all nonessential travel.