What was the death toll of Plague of Justinian?
score:5
As Mr. Durden says, any estimate is going to have a very wide range/confidence interval. If you want an answer to the question you asked, you're probably better off asking in a math stack exchange about statistics.
Having said that, 10 minutes of research will answer your question. Starting with the page you cite and checking the references, the List of Epidemics, we see that the Plague of Justinian is estimated to have killed 40% of the population. Medieval demography tells us that during late antiquity the population fell from 70 million to 50 million and reached a minimum in response to the Plague of Justinian and the extreme weather events.
70* 0.4 is 28
if you want a low confidence estimate, then you could say that the true number is probably between 28 million and 20 million. (28 million based on the 40% estimate, 20 million based on the population minimum listed in medieval demography).
If you want a higher confidence estimate, you'd need to do more research. But as Mr. Durden says, you're never going to reach a high confidence estimate.
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Source: stackoverflow.com
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